Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SIX M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. THE FIRST AND LARGEST WAS AN M3/1B FLARE AT 16/0246Z FROM REGION 8766 (N18E31). A TYPE II AND IV SWEEP, A 360 SFU TENFLARE, AND A PARTIAL HALO CME ALSO ACCOMPANIED THIS FLARE. THIS REGION, THOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL, MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8765 (S12E06) PRODUCED AN M2/1N AT 16/0710Z AND AN M1/IN AT 16/1411Z. THIS REGION IS A VERY LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION WITH TWO DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. WHITE LIGHT COVERAGE HAS NOW EXCEEDED 1000 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. AN M3/SN FLARE WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8760 (N15W81). A PARTIAL HALO CME OCCURRED WITH THIS FLARE. NEW REGION 8770 (S14W23) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8765 HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MAJOR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE SOON. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN REGION 8766. REGIONS 8759 (N12W45) AND 8760 MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF NEGATIVE BZ HAS PERSISTED SINCE AROUND 16/0900Z RESULTING IN THE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE THROUGH DAY 2. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FREQUENT FLARE ACTIVITY AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 17 NOV to 19 NOV
Class M 90%90%90%
Class X 40%40%40%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 NOV 233
  Predicted    17 NOV-19 NOV  225/215/200
  90 Day Mean        16 NOV 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV  012/012-012/012-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 NOV to 19 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%45%45%
Minor storm 10%20%20%
Major-severe storm 05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm 15%20%20%
Major-severe storm 05%10%10%

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