Viewing archive of Monday, 15 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8765 (S13E19) PRODUCED AN M2/2N FLARE AT 15/0841Z. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO OBSERVED THIS PERIOD. REGION 8765 REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 820 MILLIONTHS. THIS REGION HAS STRONG MIXED POLARITIES WITH A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. ANOTHER REGION OF NOTE IS REGION 8766 (N17E44) WHICH DOES DISPLAY A DELTA CONFIGURATION WITHIN THE GROUP. A 24 DEGREE FILAMENT AT N44E32 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 14/1845-2115Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8769 (S10E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE M-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
Class M90%90%90%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 NOV 206
  Predicted   16 NOV-18 NOV  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        15 NOV 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV  013/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV  010/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 NOV to 18 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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