Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVERAL M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8763 (S16E18) PRODUCED AN M8/2B AT 13/0801Z, REGION 8766 (N17E57) PRODUCED AN M5/2N AT 13/1607Z, REGION 8765 (S14E32) PRODUCED AN M2/SN AT 13/1623Z, REGION 8759 (N12W20) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 13/1704Z, AND ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M2 OCCURRED AT 13/1809Z. REGION 8765 IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA OF 640 MILLIONTHS. THE MOST DYNAMIC REGION IS REGION 8766 WHICH CONTAINS A STRONG DELTA CONFIGURATION. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8767 (N44W28) AND REGION 8768 (N16E33).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONS 8759, 8763, 8765, AND 8766 ALL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS EVENTS AND AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME SECTORS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 NOV to 17 NOV
Class M90%90%90%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 NOV 219
  Predicted   15 NOV-17 NOV  215/210/210
  90 Day Mean        14 NOV 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV  022/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV  008/015-010/018-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 NOV to 17 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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