Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8763 (S14E32) PRODUCED TWO LONG DURATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS A M1/1F AT 13/0258Z AND THE SECOND WAS A C6/1F AT 13/1623Z. THIS REGION HAS DECREASED IN AREA FROM YESTERDAY BUT HAS MAINTAINED A STRONG MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS PRODUCED SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8760 (N14W45) REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 570 MILLIONTHS. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8766 (N18E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE M-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN X-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES AT 13/1500Z AND 13/2100Z. PROLONGED PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ IN THE SOLAR WIND HAVE LED TO THESE CONDITIONS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ONGOING SOUTHWARD BZ IN THE SOLAR WIND.
III. Event Probabilities 14 NOV to 16 NOV
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 NOV 224
  Predicted   14 NOV-16 NOV  220/215/210
  90 Day Mean        13 NOV 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 NOV  013/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV  008/012-008/012-010/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 NOV to 16 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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