Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 November 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 NOV 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGION 8759 (N10E33) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/0140Z. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE VERY LITTLE MAGNETIC SHEAR IN THIS LARGE REGION. REGION 8753 (N19W23) BEGAN A GROWTH PHASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF AT 10/1549Z. THE NUMBER OF SMALL SPOTS IN THIS REGION NEARLY DOUBLED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8760 (N13W03) GENERATED A C5/SF AT 10/0334Z. THE RATE OF GROWTH IN THIS REGION SLOWED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8761 (N20E26) PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 10/1952Z. A MODERATE SIZE CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED AT S13E75 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8763. THIS AREA PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8753, 8759, 8761 AND 8760 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/2100-10/0000Z. DURING THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY DECREASED TO NEAR 520 KM/S. THIS DECREASE WAS NOT OBSERVED FROM THIS CORONAL HOLE LAST SOLAR ROTATION. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 11-12 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE EXTENSIVE AND FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE STREAM WOULD CEASE BEFORE 12 NOV. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR 13 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 11 NOV to 13 NOV
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 NOV 249
  Predicted   11 NOV-13 NOV  255/260/262
  90 Day Mean        10 NOV 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV  024/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  018/018-018/018-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 NOV to 13 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%05%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

11%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2020:16
Last spotless day:2020/01/23

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002M1.3
22015M1.1
32001M1.0
42012C7.9
51999C7.9
ApG
1200630G1
2199422G1
3201321
4200320G1
5200418
*since 1994

Social networks