Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 October 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C8/SF FROM REGION 8732 (N22W52) AT 19/1941Z. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8731 (N13W45) HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY , PRODUCING OCCASIONAL MINOR SUBFLARES. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BRIGHT SURGING WAS OBSERVED ON THE SE LIMB BETWEEN 19/0700 - 1000Z, A CME FROM THE SAME LOCATION OCCURRED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEW REGION 8737 (S15E14) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED A SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THOUGH LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION 8731 HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECAY, IT MAINTAINS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. REGION 8732 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8737, IF IT MAINTAINS ITS PRESENT GROWTH RATE, WILL SOON BECOME A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OBSERVED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE AS A CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Event Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
Class M 45%45%40%
Class X 10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 OCT 170
  Predicted    20 OCT-22 OCT  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        19 OCT 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  010/008-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 OCT to 22 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%

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