Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 October 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8731 (N12W03) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH INCLUDING THE RE-FORMATION OF A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION NEAR REGION CENTER. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8728 (N23W26) ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT WAS STABLE IN TERMS OF SIZE AND MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE EITHER STABLE OR DECLINING. NEW REGION 8735 (N18E40) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8731 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUING CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO VARY FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY WITH A DECREASING TREND AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 OCT to 19 OCT
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 OCT 189
  Predicted   30 DEC-16 OCT  185/185/180
  90 Day Mean        16 OCT 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 OCT  017/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT  015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 OCT to 19 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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