Viewing archive of Friday, 15 October 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8731 (N12E10) STABILIZED AS A MODERATE-SIZED, MAGNETICALLY-COMPLEX REGION AND IT APPEARED TO HAVE LOST THE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION NEAR REGION CENTER. IT PRODUCED NUMEROUS FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C7/SF AT 15/0115Z. NEW REGION 8734 (N16E20) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8731 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUING CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACTIVE ON DAY ONE AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
III. Event Probabilities 16 OCT to 18 OCT
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%15%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 OCT 198
  Predicted   16 OCT-18 OCT  200/200/195
  90 Day Mean        15 OCT 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 OCT  017/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 OCT  028/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 OCT-18 OCT  020/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 OCT to 18 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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