Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 October 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8731 (N29E24) PRODUCED AN X1/1N FLARE AT 0900Z. THE EVENT WAS RATHER IMPULSIVE BUT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. REGION 8731 HAS SHOWN REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DELTA SPOT FORMING IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION, JUST IN FRONT OF THE DOMINANT TRAILER. REGION 8732 (N20E16) HAS ALSO SHOWN GROWTH BUT WAS QUIET. REGION 8728 (N22E00) APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. A HIGH LATITUDE POLAR CROWN FILAMENT NEAR N70W50 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 13/1524Z AND 14/1529Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY MODERATE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8731.IF THE CURRENT TREND IN 8731 CONTINUES THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8732 AND 8728 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE PRODUCTION OF MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY ACTIVE. THERE WAS A PERIOD OF MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDE FROM 1500-1800Z. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH SPEED STREAM WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE ON THE 2ND DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS EARLY IN THE DAY. MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 15 OCT to 17 OCT
Class M65%65%65%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%15%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 OCT 200
  Predicted   15 OCT-17 OCT  200/200/200
  90 Day Mean        14 OCT 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT  021/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT  020/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT  020/025-010/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 OCT to 17 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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