Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 October 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 OCT 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THREE SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. TWO HAD NO OPTICAL CORRELATION AND ONE C2/SF AT 10/1356Z FROM REGION 8728 (N22E50). OF THE THIRTEEN SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE SOLAR DISK AT THIS TIME, NONE ARE VERY DYNAMIC IN MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. A REGION OF INTEREST IS REGION 8729 (N12E58). THIS REGION MAY CONSIST OF TWO OR MORE REGIONS ONCE THE AREA ROTATES FURTHER ONTO THE DISK FOR A BETTER ANALYSIS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL OF THE EXISTING REGIONS HAVE C-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS CONTINUE.
III. Event Probabilities 11 OCT to 13 OCT
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 OCT 161
  Predicted   11 OCT-13 OCT  165/168/170
  90 Day Mean        10 OCT 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 OCT  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 OCT  025/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 OCT-13 OCT  020/030-020/030-015/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 OCT to 13 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%25%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%60%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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