Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 September 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 SEP 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 X-RAY EVENT, WITH
NO ASSOCIATED OPTICAL FLARE, WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE INTERVAL. IT
OCCURRED AT 0507Z. THE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS, ALL IN THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE, WERE STABLE OR DECLINING. REGIONS 8682 (N17W14) AND 8687
(N11W33) WERE THE BRIGHTEST.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT PASSED THE HIGH LEVEL NEAR MIDWAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CORONAL
TRANSIENTS MAY BRING ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOR 06
SEPTEMBER, WITH A CALMING TREND BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 SEP 131 Predicted 05 SEP-07 SEP 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 04 SEP 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP 014/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP 013/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP 010/010-020/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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