Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8672 (N15W17) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 1205Z, BUT LITTLE ELSE. REGION 8668 (N22E01) STILL DOMINATES THE DISK, BUT WAS STABLE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8673 (S17E81) ROTATED INTO VIEW. THIS IS THE APPARENT RETURN OF OLD REGION 8647, THE SITE OF M AND X CLASS ACTIVITY LAST ROTATION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. MORE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS MAY OCCUR FROM REGIONS 8668 AND 8673.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE SOLAR WIND IS STILL GUSTING TO SPEEDS NEAR 800 KM/S, DRIVING THIS ELEVATED MAGNETIC ACTIVITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT PERSISTED AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND YIELD TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 20 AUG to 22 AUG
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 AUG 135
  Predicted   20 AUG-22 AUG  140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        19 AUG 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG  028/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 AUG to 22 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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