Viewing archive of Friday, 13 August 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 AUG 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8662 (S16W33) PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C4/SF AT
13/1559UT. DECAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE TRAILER SUNSPOTS, IS
CONTINUING. NEW REGION 8668 (N21E75) IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST
LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8662. A LOW-LEVEL
M-CLASS FLARE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SINGLE ACTIVE
PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 13/0300-0600UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 AUG 127 Predicted 14 AUG-16 AUG 128/130/132 90 Day Mean 13 AUG 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG 010/010-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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