Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 August 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 AUG 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8656 (N14W86), 8657
(S31W35), AND 8662 (S16E07) ALL PRODUCED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS.
REGION 8656 PRODUCED A C4/SF AT 10/0607Z AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MINOR SUBFLARES. REGION 8662, THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE
REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, PRODUCED A C4/1F AT 10/1624Z. MINOR
GROWTH AND FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION AND
MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WAS EVIDENT IN A BETA-GAMMA
CONFIGURATION. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8662 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FROM REGION 8657.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WAS DETECTED AT L1 AROUND 10/1800Z. BZ TURNED SHARPLY
SOUTHWARD CAUSING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 AUG 127 Predicted 11 AUG-13 AUG 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 10 AUG 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG 010/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG 008/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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