Viewing archive of Monday, 2 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE NW LIMB PRODUCED A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD YESTERDAY AROUND 01/1950Z. NO MAJOR EVENTS WERE NOTICED AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE LARGEST EVENT FROM THIS PERIOD WAS A M1 FLARE AT 02/0027Z ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED OF 450 KM/S. THIS FLARE WAS OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGION 8651 (N25W04) PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 02/2103Z WITH A TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED OF 700 KM/S. THERE WERE TWO MORE TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURSTS DURING THE PERIOD THAT WERE NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED, ONE BETWEEN 02/0541-0546Z WITH A SPEED OF 500 KM/S AND ANOTHER BETWEEN 02/0959-1006Z WITH A SPEED OF 600 KM/S. REGIONS 8651 AND 8645 (S25W44) CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND HAVE PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE THIRD DAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO CME EVENTS FROM 31 JULY THROUGH TODAY.
III. Event Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 AUG 213
  Predicted   03 AUG-05 AUG  195/190/185
  90 Day Mean        02 AUG 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 AUG  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG  012/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG  010/007-010/015-010/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 AUG to 05 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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