Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED THIS PERIOD WITH THE LARGEST FROM REGION 8645 (S25W29) WHICH PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 01/0645Z. THIS REGION IS AS AN F-TYPE GROUP AND CONTINUES TO GROW IN SUNSPOT AREA WITH AN AVERAGE OF 43 SPOTS REPORTED FOR THE DAY. REGION 8651 (N24E09) REMAINS AN E-TYPE GROUP AND THE LARGEST REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AVERAGE OF 58 SPOTS. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS 8655 (N25E38) AND 8656 (N18E34).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT CONSIDERING THE CURRENT REGIONS ON THE SUN.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS PREVAILED THROUGH 01/0600Z THEN CHANGING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 02 AUG to 04 AUG
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 AUG 216
  Predicted   02 AUG-04 AUG  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        01 AUG 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL  021/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 AUG to 04 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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