Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 July 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 JUL 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED LONG DURATION C2 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED FROM 21/2212Z TO
22/0013Z. REGION 8636 (N21E12) EXHIBITED CONTINUED GROWTH AND HAS
MAINTAINED A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. THE REGION IS NOW A
CLASS F SUNSPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 45 SPOTS. REGION 8639
(N38W50) ALSO EXHIBITED MINOR GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8643
(N21W62), CURRENTLY A BXO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 4
SPOTS, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 REMAINS VERY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
M-CLASS OR HIGHER EVENT. REGION 8639 ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE 22/0300-0600Z
PERIOD. THE INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATED TO THE
HALO CME EARLY ON 19 JULY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE
FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 23 JUL to 25 JUL
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 JUL 153 Predicted 23 JUL-25 JUL 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 22 JUL 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL 009/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL 024/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL 010/010-008/007-008/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 JUL to 25 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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