Viewing archive of Monday, 19 July 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JUL 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8636 (N20E52) PRODUCED AN M5/2N FLARE AT 19/0846Z. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE WERE TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS AS WELL AS A 140 SFU 10CM BURST. THE TYPE II SPEED WAS ESTIMATED AT 500 KM/S. EARLIER AT 19/0215Z, REGION 8631 (N12W28) PRODUCED A C4 X-RAY EVENT ALSO WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND IV SWEEPS. NEW REGION 8639 (N38W14) WAS NUMBERED AND IS CURRENTLY A BXO-BETA SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 DISPLAYS AN INCREASE IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A FAINT FULL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO FROM REGION 8631 AT 19/0215Z.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JUL to 22 JUL
Class M40%50%50%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 JUL 141
  Predicted   20 JUL-22 JUL  145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        19 JUL 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUL  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUL-22 JUL  005/008-008/007-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JUL to 22 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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