Viewing archive of Friday, 16 July 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JUL 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8635 (N44W79) PRODUCED A C7/SF FLARE AT 16/0849UT AND AN M3/0N FLARE AT 16/1550UT. THE LATTER EVENT ALSO PRODUCED MINOR RADIO ACTIVITY, INCLUDING A TYPE II SWEEP. REGION 8627 (S14W34) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 16/1731UT. EIT IMAGERY FROM THE SOHO SPACE CRAFT SHOWED A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE REGION JUST STATING TO ROTATE ONTO THE NORTHEAST LIMB. THIS COULD POSSIBLY BE RETURNING REGION 8598. THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL C AND M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE LAST ROTATION. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8627 AND 8635. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHEN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JUL to 19 JUL
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 JUL 132
  Predicted    17 JUL-19 JUL  140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        16 JUL 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUL  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUL-19 JUL  005/007-005/007-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JUL to 19 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm 05%05%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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