Viewing archive of Friday, 9 July 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUL 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
IN A VARIETY OF SMALL ACTIVE REGIONS. REGION 8629 (N23W70) WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE AREA PRODUCING THE BULK OF THE OBSERVED FLARES. THIS NEW
EMERGING REGION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THAT HAD BEEN
NUMBERED 8613 BUT HAD SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED. REGIONS 8615 (S29W28),
8626 (S21W43), 8627 (S13E61), AND NEW REGION 8628 (N18E52) ALSO
PRODUCED SUBFLARES. REGION 8630 (S10W55) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ANY OF THE ACTIVE REGIONS MENTIONED IN PART IA. ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE IN REGION 8629.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 JUL 151 Predicted 10 JUL-12 JUL 152/154/154 90 Day Mean 09 JUL 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL 006/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL 004/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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