Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 June 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8603 (S14W11) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH AND A SLIGHT MIXING OF POLARITIES. IT PRODUCED TWO IMPULSIVE M-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS AN M1/1B AT 30/1130Z ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION AND A FAINT HALO-CME. THE SECOND WAS AN M2/2B PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 30/1808Z ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8611 (S26E21) CONTINUED TO GROW GRADUALLY AND PRODUCED AN M2/1N FLARE AT 30/0446Z WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. THE FINAL M-CLASS FLARE OF THE PERIOD WAS AN M1/SF AT 30/2012Z FROM REGION 8598 (N24W49) WITH MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8598 DISPLAYED GRADUAL DECAY PRIOR TO THE FLARE. REGION 8602 (N18W20) SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASES IN PENUMBRAL COVERAGE AND MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, NONE OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT X-RAY EMISSION. BRIGHT SURGING WAS SEEN NEAR NE18 AROUND 30/1230Z AND MAY PORTEND THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8569 (N19, L=189), WHICH WAS OF MODERATE SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY DURING ITS PREVIOUS ROTATION. NEW REGION 8613 (N18E67) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE HALO-CME MENTIONED ABOVE.
III. Event Probabilities 01 JUL to 03 JUL
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 JUN 210
  Predicted   01 JUL-03 JUL  215/215/215
  90 Day Mean        30 JUN 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUN  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUN  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUL-03 JUL  007/012-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 JUL to 03 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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