Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 June 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 JUN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8602 (N18W07) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF
FLARE AT 29/0510Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND MINOR
DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8611 (S25E33) CONTINUED A PERIOD OF
GRADUAL GROWTH THAT BEGAN WITH ITS EMERGENCE ON 27 JUNE. IT PRODUCED
AN IMPULSIVE M3/1N PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 29/0821Z ACCOMPANIED BY
MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8603 (S15E04) PRODUCED THE
PERIOD'S LAST M-CLASS FLARE, AN M1/1N AT 29/1913Z WITH MODERATE
DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8598 (N23W38) SHOWED SLOW DECAY, BUT
RETAINED MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED
TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY DECLINED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH A CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 30 JUN to 02 JUL
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 JUN 191 Predicted 30 JUN-02 JUL 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 29 JUN 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUN 022/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL 010/012-012/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 JUN to 02 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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