Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 June 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JUN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8583
(S13E56) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 1336Z. THIS EVENT INCLUDED A
WEAK TYPE II SWEEP, AND SMALL RADIO BURSTS AT VARIOUS DISCRETE
FREQUENCIES. A PROMINENCE POSITIONED NEAR S23E90 ERUPTED SOON AFTER
THE X-RAY EVENT. THERE ARE TWELVE SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE, AND
BRIGHT PLAGE IS APPARENT IN REGIONS 8583, 8569 (N20W32), AND 8574
(N30W50). NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8585 (N38E77) IS PERCHED OMINOUSLY
NEAR EAST LIMB. FIRST LOOKS SHOW IT TO BE LARGE AND INTERESTING.
REGION 8584 (N25W22) WAS BORN ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8583, 8585, 8569, AND 8574 ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO GENERATE M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JUN to 15 JUN
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 JUN 168 Predicted 13 JUN-15 JUN 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 12 JUN 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUN 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUN 005/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUN-15 JUN 010/010-010/012-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JUN to 15 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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