Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 June 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8583 (S13E56) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 1336Z. THIS EVENT INCLUDED A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP, AND SMALL RADIO BURSTS AT VARIOUS DISCRETE FREQUENCIES. A PROMINENCE POSITIONED NEAR S23E90 ERUPTED SOON AFTER THE X-RAY EVENT. THERE ARE TWELVE SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE, AND BRIGHT PLAGE IS APPARENT IN REGIONS 8583, 8569 (N20W32), AND 8574 (N30W50). NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8585 (N38E77) IS PERCHED OMINOUSLY NEAR EAST LIMB. FIRST LOOKS SHOW IT TO BE LARGE AND INTERESTING. REGION 8584 (N25W22) WAS BORN ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8583, 8585, 8569, AND 8574 ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JUN to 15 JUN
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 JUN 168
  Predicted   13 JUN-15 JUN  170/175/175
  90 Day Mean        12 JUN 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUN  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUN  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUN-15 JUN  010/010-010/012-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JUN to 15 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
99999

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