Viewing archive of Friday, 11 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. AN ACTIVE REGION ON THE NORTH EAST LIMB (N38E90) IS STARTING TO ROTATE ONTO THE DISK AND COULD BE A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF INCREASED ACTIVITY. AT 11/1107UT THIS REGION PRODUCED AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE LIMB THAT COINCIDED WITH A LONG DURATION C8 X-RAY EVENT, A TYPE II SWEEP, AND A TYPE IV SWEEP. OPTICAL OBSERVATORIES REPORTED ACTIVE LOOPS IN THE AREA IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE PROMINENCE ERUPTED. AN IMPRESSIVE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THIS EVENT WAS VISIBLE IN DATA FROM THE SOHO/LASCO SATELLITE. ON THE DISK, THE MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE 8569 (N19W20) WHICH PRODUCED A C4/1F EVENT AT 11/1818UT AND REGION 8574 (N29W37). BOTH REGIONS HAVE BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS AND HAVE PRODUCED OPTICAL SUBFLARES. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED: 8581 (S38W15) AND 8582 (N26E31). REGION 8582 HAS PRODUCED TWO OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE LOW. THE ACTIVE REGION ON THE NORTH EAST LIMB (N38E90) THAT IS STARTING TO ROTATE ONTO THE DISK COULD BE A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF INCREASED ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED ON JUNE 14TH AS TWO SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLES MOVE INTO POSSIBLE GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JUN to 14 JUN
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 JUN 165
  Predicted   12 JUN-14 JUN  160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        11 JUN 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN  003/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN  010/012-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JUN to 14 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%03%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%40%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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