Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. INTERMITTENT SMALL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8574 (N29E28) PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE FLARES, AND EXHIBITED THE BRIGHTEST PLAGE OF THE FOURTEEN SPOT GROUPS NOW VISIBLE. REGION 8562 (S15W57) IS THE MOST COMPLEX MAGNETICALLY, BUT HAS GENERATED LITTLE ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS, 8575 (N13E32) AND 8576 (S29E52), WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8574 OR REGION 8562.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT STAYED BELOW 10 PFU ALL PERIOD, SO THE EVENT THAT BEGAN 04/0925Z, AND REACHED A MAX OF 64 PFU AT 04/1055Z, DID INDEED END AT 05/1515Z. ACE DETECTED A SMALL DISCONTINUITY IN THE SOLAR WIND AT L1 TODAY AT 0359Z, PERHAPS RELATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE CME THAT LEFT THE SUN AROUND 0700Z ON 04 JUNE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JUN to 09 JUN
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 JUN 168
  Predicted   07 JUN-09 JUN  170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        06 JUN 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JUN to 09 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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