Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 June 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JUN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED AS THE DISK EXPERIENCED VERY SUBSTANTIAL WHITE LIGHT AND
H-ALPHA GROWTH. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED; 8571 (S19E60), 8572
(N26W58), 8573 (N18W45), AND 8574 (N30E40). THERE ARE CURRENTLY
FIFTEEN SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE, AND THE X-RAY BACKGROUND IS NEAR
THE CLASS C LEVEL. TODAY'S IS ONE OF THE RICHEST AND MOST
INTERESTING DISKS OF THE CURRENT CYCLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8558 (N16W35) AND 8562 (S15W45) OFFER THE MOST
PROMISE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT CONTINUES TO WANE WITH A TENTATIVE END TIME AT
05/1515Z. HOWEVER, THE FLUX IS HOVERING NEAR THE 10 PFU MARK, SO
FURTHER TIME MUST PASS TO CONFIRM THAT END. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION
EVENT ENDED AT 05/0420Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
EPISODES OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JUN to 08 JUN
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 JUN 164 Predicted 06 JUN-08 JUN 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 05 JUN 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUN 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN 005/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN 015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JUN to 08 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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