Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 June 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 JUN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8562 (S15W18)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 03/0644UT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A
NUMBER OF C-CLASS SUBFLARES. GROWTH IN THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE
STABILIZING. IT IS NOW A D-TYPE GROUP WITH MODERATE MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 8567 (S14W04) IS EMERGING ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE. REGION 8562 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FLARE
PRODUCER.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO QUIET. A SMALL SHOCK WAS OBSERVED
AT L1 AT ABOUT 02/2035UT. ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOLLOWED DURING THE
02/21-24UT AND 03/00-03UT PERIODS. ACTIVITY LEVELS HAVE BEEN QUIET
SINCE THAT TIME. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT HAS ENDED:
START 02/0245UT, MAXIMUM OF 48 PFU AT 02/1010UT, AND END 03/1410UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 JUN 174 Predicted 04 JUN-06 JUN 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 03 JUN 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN 005/008-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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