Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 June 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY CONTINUED FROM A NUMBER OF REGIONS. THE LARGEST X-RAY FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A C9/1F AT 02/0513UT IN REGION 8562 (S16W05). THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A NUMBER OF SMALL SUBFLARES. A LARGE CME WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY IN LASCO IMAGES AT ABOUT 01/1930UT. SUPPORTING DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT WAS FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE SUN. NEW REGIONS 8565 (S07E42) AND 8566 (N23E74) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGION 8562. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 02/0245UT. SO FAR THE MAXIMUM FLUX WAS 48 PFU AT 02/1010UT. THIS EVENT REMAINS IN PROGRESS. A POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTICLES, OCCURRED FROM 02/0857UT TO 02/1850UT. MAXIMUM ABSORPTION WAS 2.2 DB. THIS PARTICLE EVENT IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKSIDE CME OBSERVED AT 01/1930UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. NO EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE BACKSIDE CME AT 01/1930UT. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
III. Event Probabilities 03 JUN to 05 JUN
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 JUN 173
  Predicted   03 JUN-05 JUN  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        02 JUN 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUN-05 JUN  010/008-010/008-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 JUN to 05 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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