Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. REGION 8543 (N06E45)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. SOLAR
WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT HAS NOT SHOWN A CONCLUSIVE CME
SIGNATURE, LIKELY CAUSE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS THE INFLUENCE OF A
RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 14 MAY to 16 MAY
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 MAY 147 Predicted 14 MAY-16 MAY 140/135/130 90 Day Mean 13 MAY 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAY 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAY 025/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAY-16 MAY 015/012-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 MAY to 16 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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