Viewing archive of Monday, 10 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. A SINGLE M2/2N FLARE
OCCURRED FROM REGION 8539 (N13E03) AT 10/0531UT. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO AFTER THIS FLARE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BECOMING
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM ON THE THIRD. A CORONAL HOLE IS ROTATING
INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION, A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT WAS
NOTED AT 07/1400UT, A MAJOR FLARE (M7) OCCURRED AT 09/1807UT, AND A
HALO CME WAS OBSERVED DURING AN M2 FLARE AT 10/0531UT FROM REGION
8539. ALL OF THESE COMPONENTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THIS INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 11 MAY to 13 MAY
| Class M | 75% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 MAY 170 Predicted 11 MAY-13 MAY 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 10 MAY 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY 007/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY 015/012-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 MAY to 13 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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