Viewing archive of Monday, 10 May 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 MAY 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. A SINGLE M2/2N FLARE OCCURRED FROM REGION 8539 (N13E03) AT 10/0531UT. A FULL HALO CME WAS OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO AFTER THIS FLARE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBITS WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BECOMING UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM ON THE THIRD. A CORONAL HOLE IS ROTATING INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION, A SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENT WAS NOTED AT 07/1400UT, A MAJOR FLARE (M7) OCCURRED AT 09/1807UT, AND A HALO CME WAS OBSERVED DURING AN M2 FLARE AT 10/0531UT FROM REGION 8539. ALL OF THESE COMPONENTS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 11 MAY to 13 MAY
Class M75%60%60%
Class X20%15%15%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 MAY 170
  Predicted   11 MAY-13 MAY  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        10 MAY 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY  015/012-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 MAY to 13 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%35%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%40%
Minor storm15%20%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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