Viewing archive of Friday, 7 May 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 MAY 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO AN UNCORRELATED M3 EVENT AT 07/0441UT. IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM BEYOND THE EAST LIMB. OVERALL ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE 11 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, 6 OF WHICH HAVE RECENTLY ROTATED ONTO THE EASTERN LIMB. 7 DIFFERENT REGIONS PRODUCED OPTICAL SUB-FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. THE TWO MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE: REGION 8525 (N16W31) WHICH PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION C7/1F EVENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 6 DEGREE DSF AT 07/1410UT AND REGION 8539 (N13E45) WHICH PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 07/0703UT. 4 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8537 (N19W60), 8538 (N10W33), 8539 (N13E45), AND 8540 (S28E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 08 MAY to 10 MAY
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 MAY 163
  Predicted   08 MAY-10 MAY  165/165/170
  90 Day Mean        07 MAY 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 MAY to 10 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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