Viewing archive of Friday, 7 May 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 May 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 MAY 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO AN UNCORRELATED M3
EVENT AT 07/0441UT. IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT THIS EVENT ORIGINATED
FROM BEYOND THE EAST LIMB. OVERALL ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE 11 SPOTTED
REGIONS ON THE DISK, 6 OF WHICH HAVE RECENTLY ROTATED ONTO THE
EASTERN LIMB. 7 DIFFERENT REGIONS PRODUCED OPTICAL SUB-FLARES DURING
THE PERIOD. THE TWO MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE: REGION 8525 (N16W31)
WHICH PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION C7/1F EVENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
6 DEGREE DSF AT 07/1410UT AND REGION 8539 (N13E45) WHICH PRODUCED A
C3/SF AT 07/0703UT. 4 NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 8537 (N19W60), 8538
(N10W33), 8539 (N13E45), AND 8540 (S28E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 08 MAY to 10 MAY
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 MAY 163 Predicted 08 MAY-10 MAY 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 07 MAY 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 MAY to 10 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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