Viewing archive of Friday, 9 April 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8508 (N23W01) STABILIZED AND PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED IN THIS REGION BUT OVERALL THE REGION BECAME LESS COMPLEX AND MAGNETIC GRADIENTS LESSENED. OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8508 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING DUE TO REGION SIMPLIFICATION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 APR 136
  Predicted    10 APR-12 APR  132/128/124
  90 Day Mean        09 APR 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 APR  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 APR  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 APR-12 APR  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 APR to 12 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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