Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 April 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N19E37) PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 06/0705Z AND REGION 8506 (S26W410) GENERATED A C3/SF AT 05/2309Z. SOME AREAS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WERE VISIBLE IN BOTH REGIONS BUT OVERALL THESE REGIONS WERE STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8506 AND 8508.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 06/0000-0600Z PERIOD WHEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET UNTIL LATE ON 07 APR. THEN A WEAK, CME RELATED, DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. A HALO-APPEARING CME OCCURRED AT THE SUN ON 04 APR. HOWEVER, IT IS BELIEVED THIS CME ACTUALLY CONSISTED OF TWO SEPARATE EJECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THE EARTH WILL RECEIVE A DIRECT BLOW BY THESE EJECTIONS. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC PERIODS ARE PROBABLE DURING THE 08-09 APR TIME PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 07 APR to 09 APR
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 APR 137
  Predicted   07 APR-09 APR  140/142/144
  90 Day Mean        06 APR 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR  012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 APR to 09 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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