Viewing archive of Friday, 2 April 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 APR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 02/0821Z. MINOR GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGION 8504 (S28E23). MINOR SURGING WAS OBSERVED AGAIN TODAY ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. HOWEVER, ONE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 02/0300 - 0600Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS BELIEVED TO BE RELATED TO A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM IMPACTING THE EARTH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE CONTINUATION OF AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
III. Event Probabilities 03 APR to 05 APR
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 APR 100
  Predicted   03 APR-05 APR  104/106/110
  90 Day Mean        02 APR 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 APR  014/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 APR  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 APR-05 APR  015/015-015/020-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 APR to 05 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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