Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 March 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C4/SF OCCURRED IN REGION 8493 (N20W36) AT 19/2330Z. ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVELS SINCE THEN WITH MINOR PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SURGES OCCURRING IN REGION 8493 AND 8496 (S09W18). REMAINING REGIONS HAVE SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. REGIONS 8493 AND 8496 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 MAR to 23 MAR
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 MAR 133
  Predicted   21 MAR-23 MAR  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        20 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAR  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAR-23 MAR  008/007-010/005-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 MAR to 23 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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