Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 March 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8485 (N23W39) REMAINED A LARGE F-TYPE GROUP WITH MIXED POLARITIES AND SHOWED AN OVERALL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE APPARENT IN ITS SIZE OR STRUCTURE. IT PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/1F AT 16/0635UT ALONG WITH SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ALL OF THESE FLARES WERE WEAK IN RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8487 (N16W02) PRODUCED ISOLATED B-CLASS SUBFLARES AND SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. A 16-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN NEAR S35W32, DISAPPEARED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE WAS A CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE, BUT IT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED. NEW REGION 8489 (N13W28) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8485 AND 8487 APPEAR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 8485.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. HOWEVER, ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS IN RESPONSE TO RECENT CME OCCURRENCES.
III. Event Probabilities 17 MAR to 19 MAR
Class M50%45%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 MAR 156
  Predicted   17 MAR-19 MAR  155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        16 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR  011/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  012/010-015/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 MAR to 19 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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