Viewing archive of Monday, 15 March 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8487 (N16E11) SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN AREA AND MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY AND PRODUCED AN M1/1N PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 15/0336Z ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. SLOW GROWTH IN PENUMBRAL COVERAGE AND MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY ALSO OCCURRED WITHIN REGION 8485 (N23W25). IT REMAINED A LARGE F-TYPE SPOT GROUP WITH MIXED POLARITIES AND PRODUCED ISOLATED B- AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING SPOT GROUPS WERE QUIET AND STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8485 AND 8487 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES AND SHOWED A DECREASING TREND AFTER 15/1600Z. RECENT ACTIVE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WINDSTREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEN DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 MAR 150
  Predicted    16 MAR-18 MAR  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        15 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR  015/012-012/010-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%20%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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