Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 March 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8487 (N17E25) DISPLAYED NO REMARKABLE CHANGES IN SIZE OR COMPLEXITY, BUT PRODUCED TWO LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES: AN M2/1N AT 14/0127Z AND AN M1/SF AT 14 /1010Z. MINOR DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED BOTH FLARES. REGION 8485 (N23W09) REMAINED A MODERATELY-LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH MIXED POLARITIES. IT SHOWED AN OVERALL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 14/0000Z AND PRODUCED A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES, NONE OF WHICH HAD SIGNIFICANT RADIO EMISSION. NEW REGION 8488 (S27E40) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8485 AND 8487 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED FROM QUIET TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS BEGINNING AROUND 14/0900Z IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SOLAR WIND FLOW (AS MEASURED BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT). CHANGES INCLUDED A VELOCITY INCREASE FROM 380 - 640 KM/SEC AND INCREASED IMF BZ VARIABILITY WITH MAXIMUM SOUTHERLY DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 10 NT (GSM).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO VARY FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY. THE GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE MAY REACH HIGH LEVELS SOMETIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAR to 17 MAR
Class M 40%40%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 MAR 150
  Predicted    15 MAR-17 MAR  155/150/140
  90 Day Mean        14 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAR  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR  015/015-015/012-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAR to 17 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%35%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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