Viewing archive of Friday, 12 March 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8487 (N17E51) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION TODAY, PRODUCING A STEADY SEQUENCE OF FLARE ACTIVITY INCLUDING AT LEAST 5 C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C9/1B AT 1726Z. THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE SMALL, BUT IS GROWING AND HAS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8485 (N23E13) IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY. THE REGION SHOWS OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS AND CONTRIBUTED 4 C-CLASS EVENTS, ALL OF WHICH WERE AT C1 LEVEL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER OF 8485 OR 8487. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. QUIET LEVELS PREVAILED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THE PERIOD FROM 0600-1200 WAS SOMEWHAT DISTURBED, WITH ACTIVITY ATTAINING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AN INCREASE TO ACTIVE IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW OR EARLY ON THE 2ND DAY IN RESPONSE TO ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT ERUPTION OF 10 MARCH. MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ON THE 2ND DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR STORM CONDITIONS. MOSTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS SHOULD RESUME ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 13 MAR to 15 MAR
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 MAR 140
  Predicted    13 MAR-15 MAR  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        12 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAR-15 MAR  015/012-020/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 MAR to 15 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm 15%20%10%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm 15%20%15%
Major-severe storm 15%15%05%

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