Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 March 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAR 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8483 (S18W61) SHOWED GROWTH AND FREQUENT SMALL FLARE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING A C8/SF AT 0009Z. NEW REGION 8487 (N17E63) WAS ALSO ACTIVE TODAY AND PRODUCED A C6/SF AT 2034Z. REGION 8485 (N22E27) GREW SLOWLY AND IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK, BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER A COUPLE SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT, HOWEVER, FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8485, 8484 OR 8483. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. AN INITIALLY QUIET FIELD BECAME MOSTLY UNSETTLED AFTER 11/0000Z AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 1200-1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS BEGINNING LATE ON THE 13TH OR PERHAPS ON THE 14TH AS A RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION. NOTE ALSO THAT THERE IS ALSO AN ENHANCED, PROBABILITY FOR STORM LEVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAR to 14 MAR
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 MAR 137
  Predicted    12 MAR-14 MAR  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        11 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR  029/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR  010/012-015/015-020/023
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAR to 14 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%35%
Minor storm 10%15%25%
Major-severe storm 05%10%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%35%
Minor storm 10%20%25%
Major-severe storm 05%15%20%

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