Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 March 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 MAR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8484 PRODUCED TWO
C-CLASS SUBFLARES: THE FIRST WAS A C2/1F AT 1830Z AND THE SECOND WAS
A C1/SF AT 2010Z. THE GROUP IS AN ACTIVE, BUT RELATIVELY SMALL
D-TYPE SUNSPOT REGION. REGION 8485 (N22E53) SHOWED FREQUENT
BRIGHTENINGS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT ONLY PRODUCED ONE
SUB-FAINT FLARE. THE OTHER SUNSPOT REGIONS WERE STABLE AND QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM 8484 OR 8477 (S28W33).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO STORM LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITIALLY QUIET FIELD BECAME ACTIVE AROUND
09/0000UT, AND INTENSIFIED TO MINOR STORM (WITH SOME HIGH LATITUDE
MAJOR STORM PERIODS) BETWEEN 0600-1330 UT. CONDITIONS SUBSIDED
GRADUALLY, WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 09/2100Z. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 10 MAR to 12 MAR
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 MAR 127 Predicted 10 MAR-12 MAR 135/145/150 90 Day Mean 09 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAR 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAR 020/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAR-12 MAR 010/012-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 MAR to 12 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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