Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 February 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8471 (N29W12) PRODUCED A M6/2B EVENT AT 28/1639Z. THIS EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 310 SFU RADIO BURST AT 2695MHZ. OTHERWISE, ONLY TWO MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8471 CONTINUED TO SHOW GROWTH AND HAS INCREASED IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY TO A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. NEW REGIONS 8476 AT N20E19, AND 8477 AT S25E77 WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH REGION 8471 AS THE PRIMARY FLARE PRODUCER.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS DETECTED AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM A WELL POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAY AFFECT THE NEAR-EARTH ENVIRONS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 FEB 123
  Predicted   01 MAR-03 MAR  125/128/130
  90 Day Mean        28 FEB 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR  010/010-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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