Viewing archive of Friday, 19 February 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. JUST ISOLATED, SMALL, C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED, AS THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE REGIONS ON THE DISK WAS THAT OF DECAY. EIGHT SPOTTED REGIONS ARE VISIBLE, THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BEING 8458 (S23W61). THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAJOR STORMING WHICH BEGAN EARLY YESTERDAY HAS SLOWLY SUBSIDED. THE RADIAL SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL IN EXCESS OF 500 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ROSE TO HIGH LEVELS MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAY 2. THE LAST DAY OF THE INTERVAL MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AGAIN AS A HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS DUE.
III. Event Probabilities 20 FEB to 22 FEB
Class M30%30%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 FEB 164
  Predicted   20 FEB-22 FEB  160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        19 FEB 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB  041/054
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB  035/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB  015/020-005/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 FEB to 22 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%30%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%40%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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