Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 February 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A LONG-DURATION M1/SF FLARE PEAKING AT 14/1045UT IN REGION 8457 (N15W03). THIS REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. C-CLASS ACTIVITY ALSO OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8456 (N23W22), 8458 (S22E03), AND 8462 (N20E07). RAPID EMERGENCE OF NEW FLUX IS OCCURRING IN REGION 8459 (S30W30), AN AREA WHICH HAD BEEN SPOTLESS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE MOST PROBABLE FLARE PRODUCERS ARE REGIONS 8456, 8457, 8458, AND 8462. REGION 8459 MAY ALSO BEGIN TO FLARE IF EMERGENCE CONTINUES. REGIONS 8457 AND 8462 HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 15 FEB to 17 FEB
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 FEB 205
  Predicted   15 FEB-17 FEB  210/215/215
  90 Day Mean        14 FEB 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 FEB to 17 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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