Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEW REGION 8450 (N21W18)
EMERGED DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION C3/2F
PARALLEL RIBBON FLARE AT 27/1654Z. A LARGE PART OF THE MATERIAL IN A
NEARBY FILAMENT FADED DURING THE EVENT. NO RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED
THIS EVENT. OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE STABLE OR EXHIBITED SLIGHT
DECAY. THERE WERE SOME SOFT X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LIMB DURING THE PERIOD WHERE OLD REGION 8439 COMPLETED ITS WEST LIMB
TRANSIT TWO DAYS AGO.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW FOR 28-29
JAN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, VERY LOW LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON 30
JAN.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOWED
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VELOCITY AND BZ WAS SOUTHWARD FOR ALMOST ALL OF
THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JAN to 30 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 JAN 125 Predicted 28 JAN-30 JAN 118/112/110 90 Day Mean 27 JAN 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JAN 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JAN-30 JAN 010/008-010/007-010/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JAN to 30 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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