Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 January 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8439 (S23W70) PRODUCED A C5/1N EVENT AT 23/1514Z. THE REGION ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS SMALLER C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8439 AND 8440 (N19W63) SHOWED SOME SLIGHT DECAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. AS REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 START APPROACHING THE WEST LIMB, THEY ARE EACH STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT 23/1105Z, AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 14 PFU AT 23/1130Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES SLOWLY DECLINED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD AT 23/1245Z, BUT REMAINED ENHANCED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JAN to 26 JAN
Class M50%40%20%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 JAN 166
  Predicted   24 JAN-26 JAN  164/160/158
  90 Day Mean        23 JAN 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JAN  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JAN  014/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JAN-26 JAN  010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JAN to 26 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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