Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE TWO MOST ACTIVE REGIONS
WERE 8439 (S23W13) AND 8440 (N19W10) BOTH REGIONS HAVE PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES. BOTH REGIONS
ARE SHOWING PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS, ACTIVE SURGING, AND HAVE BETA-GAMMA
MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY
QUIET AND STABLE. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: 8444 (N19E20)
A 2 SPOT AXX ALPHA GROUP AND 8445 (N10E25) A 3 SPOT BXO BETA GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JAN to 22 JAN
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 JAN 176 Predicted 20 JAN-22 JAN 180/185/185 90 Day Mean 19 JAN 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JAN 002/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JAN 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JAN-22 JAN 008/008-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JAN to 22 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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