Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO M-CLASS FLARES WERE
REPORTED: AN M3 AT 16/1207UT AND AN M1 AT 16/1956UT. ALTHOUGH BOTH
FLARES WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED THEY WERE MOST LIKELY PRODUCED BY
REGION 8440 (N19E29). REGION 8440 IS THE DOMINANT ACTIVE REGION ON
THE DISK. BESIDES THE PROBABLE M-CLASS FLARES IT HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE DAY. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY A 31
SPOT EAI GROUP WITH A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. THE OTHER
ACTIVE REGION WAS 8339 (S24E28). 8339 PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 16/0137UT
BUT HAS SHOWN NO ACTIVITY SINCE THEN. REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS
WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE. CONTINUED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8440 AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES FROM 8439.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS ALL DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PERIOD 16/0000UT TO 16/0600UT. DURING THAT
PERIOD THE FLUX FELL BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JAN to 19 JAN
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 JAN 159 Predicted 17 JAN-19 JAN 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 16 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JAN 010/017 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JAN 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JAN-19 JAN 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JAN to 19 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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