Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 January 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. NINE C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH REGIONS 8439 (S24E66) AND NEW REGION 8440 (N21E71). THESE REGIONS APPEAR TO BE FLARING SYMPATHETICALLY. A BRIGHT SURGE OUT TO 0.19R FROM N23E90 (BEHIND REGION 8440) WAS REPORTED BETWEEN 1914-1936 UT. ADDITIONAL SURGING ON THE EAST LIMB NEAR N20 MAY BE SIGNALING THE RETURN OF ANY OF SEVERAL REGIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE LIMBS AND DISK WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE BASED ON THE FLARE POTENTIAL IN REGIONS 8439 AND 8440, AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF ACTIVE REGIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB OF THE SUN. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY INCREASED AFTER A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 1055 UT. SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF A SHOCK AT 0959 UT THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY ENHANCED, SOUTHWARD INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS (-20 NT). THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE ORIGINATED ON 9 JANUARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE IN THE NORTH CENTER OF THE SUN AND/OR A LONG-DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, WHICH ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS ON 12 JANUARY, FELL BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD AT 12/1835 UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL MINOR STORM CONDITIONS TOMORROW AS TODAY'S TRANSIENT SOLAR WIND EVENT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE BEYOND EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 14 JAN to 16 JAN
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 JAN 119
  Predicted    14 JAN-16 JAN  130/140/150
  90 Day Mean        13 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JAN  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JAN  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JAN-16 JAN  015/015-010/012-010/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 JAN to 16 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm 10%05%01%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm 20%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%

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