Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO C-6 X-RAY FLARES, AT 0117Z
AND 1156Z, WERE APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING ON THE SOUTHEAST
LIMB WHERE NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8439 (S24E70) IS COMING FULLY INTO
VIEW. THIS REGION WAS NOT VISIBLE LAST ROTATION BUT APPEARS TO
POSSESS SOME MATURE SPOTS AND A CERTAIN LEVEL OF VOLATILITY.
ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER NEW REGION, 8438 (S18E07), WAS ASSIGNED. IT GREW
RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD BUT AS YET IT HAS BEEN UNPRODUCTIVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISK WAS QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8439 SHOULD PERSIST AS THE MAIN FLARE PRODUCER.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT ABOUT
1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 JAN 113 Predicted 13 JAN-15 JAN 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 12 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN 003/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN 005/009-005/009-005/011
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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