Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 January 1999

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JAN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO C-6 X-RAY FLARES, AT 0117Z AND 1156Z, WERE APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHERE NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8439 (S24E70) IS COMING FULLY INTO VIEW. THIS REGION WAS NOT VISIBLE LAST ROTATION BUT APPEARS TO POSSESS SOME MATURE SPOTS AND A CERTAIN LEVEL OF VOLATILITY. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER NEW REGION, 8438 (S18E07), WAS ASSIGNED. IT GREW RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD BUT AS YET IT HAS BEEN UNPRODUCTIVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK WAS QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8439 SHOULD PERSIST AS THE MAIN FLARE PRODUCER. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT ABOUT 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 JAN 113
  Predicted    13 JAN-15 JAN  120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        12 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN  003/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN  005/009-005/009-005/011
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JAN to 15 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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